Raoul Pal Predicts Bitcoin to Surpass $140,000 by July 2025: Analyzing the Macro Forces Behind the Forecast
Renowned macro investor and Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal has projected that Bitcoin (BTC) could exceed $140,000 by July 2025. This prediction is grounded in his analysis of the global M2 money supply—a key indicator of global liquidity—and its historical correlation with Bitcoin’s price movements.
Understanding the Global M2 Money Supply and Its Impact on Bitcoin
The M2 money supply encompasses the total amount of money in circulation, including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money. Pal emphasizes that Bitcoin’s price is closely linked to global liquidity trends, particularly the M2 supply. He notes that Bitcoin’s price movements often lag behind changes in global M2 by approximately 12 weeks, suggesting that increases in liquidity can lead to subsequent rises in Bitcoin’s value .
This perspective positions Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a macroeconomic instrument sensitive to global financial conditions. As central banks and governments inject more liquidity into the economy, assets like Bitcoin, which are considered hedges against inflation and currency debasement, tend to attract increased investment.
The “Banana Zone”: A Phase of Accelerated Growth
Pal describes the current market phase as entering the “Banana Zone,” a term he uses to depict periods of rapid and exponential growth in asset prices. He believes that Bitcoin is on the cusp of such a phase, driven by increasing global liquidity and investor enthusiasm. However, he also cautions that this phase may be followed by a period of consolidation or correction, particularly if the U.S. dollar experiences a reflexive rally .
Broader Market Sentiment and Predictions
The optimism surrounding Bitcoin is not limited to Pal’s analysis. Options traders are exhibiting bullish sentiment, with significant open interest in call options at strike prices well above current levels. For instance, the $120,000 strike price options expiring in June 2025 have garnered substantial attention, indicating expectations of continued upward movement in Bitcoin’s price .
Moreover, other analysts, like Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital, suggest that the current phase of increasing global liquidity could extend into mid-2026, providing a supportive backdrop for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies .
Final Thoughts
Raoul Pal’s projection of Bitcoin reaching over $140,000 by July 2025 is rooted in macroeconomic analysis, particularly the relationship between global liquidity and asset prices. While the forecast is optimistic, it underscores the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and understanding their influence on the cryptocurrency market.
