Lyn Alden Sees Bitcoin Gaining in 2025 Despite U.S. Tariffs and Global Volatility
Macroeconomist and investment strategist Lyn Alden believes that Bitcoin is poised for a bullish move through 2025, despite some macroeconomic headwinds, including new U.S. tariff policies. Drawing comparisons to historical economic cycles, Alden outlines how a potential liquidity wave—similar to the pre-2008 global environment—could create ideal conditions for Bitcoin to thrive.
Bitcoin in 2025: Higher Highs, But With a Caveat
In her recent appearance on the Coin Stories podcast with Natalie Brunell (April 17 episode), Lyn Alden said she expects Bitcoin to end 2025 at a higher price than its current level (around $85,000 at the time of the interview). However, she admitted that if not for the geopolitical and fiscal changes introduced earlier this year—especially tariffs announced by President Donald Trump —her target would have been even more bullish.
These protectionist tariffs could disrupt global trade and trigger ripple effects through commodity prices, corporate margins, and central bank responses. While not directly tied to Bitcoin, such moves impact broader risk sentiment and liquidity conditions, which in turn shape Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
The Power of Liquidity: Why Global M2 Matters for Bitcoin
Lyn Alden is well-known for her thesis that Bitcoin is highly correlated with global liquidity. In fact, her research shows that Bitcoin moves in the direction of global M2 money supply (which includes cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near-money) 83% of the time over any given 12-month period.
In her September 2023 report, Alden called Bitcoin a “global liquidity barometer.” She compared Bitcoin’s behavior to assets like the S&P 500 (SPX), gold, and the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT), and concluded that Bitcoin had the strongest correlation with global liquidity out of all major asset classes.
“Bitcoin thrives when liquidity is expanding globally. That’s when capital flows into risk assets, and Bitcoin captures a meaningful portion of that flow,” Alden wrote.
This is especially relevant in an environment where central banks are expected to pause or reverse tightening cycles due to economic slowdowns or financial market stress.
The Historical Parallel: Is Bitcoin Entering Its 2003–2007 Moment?
Alden draws a compelling parallel between today’s environment and the 2003–2007 economic cycle, the years preceding the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. That period was characterized by:
- A weaker U.S. dollar
- Rising global liquidity
- Strong performance in emerging markets, commodities, and gold
- Underperformance in certain U.S. equities
While that cycle eventually ended in a crash, the five-year run-up created massive returns for those positioned in the right assets. Alden suggests that if history rhymes, Bitcoin could be the 21st-century equivalent of gold and emerging market equities in that era.
“If we encounter a five-year period like that again, that could be a period where Bitcoin does pretty well, even as the U.S. stock market doesn’t do particularly well,” she explained.
Bitcoin’s 24/7 Market: Volatility or Strategic Advantage?
Alden also touched on the round-the-clock nature of crypto trading as a unique factor contributing to both its volatility and its appeal.
Unlike traditional financial markets, which shut down over weekends or holidays, Bitcoin trades 24/7. This allows capital to move quickly in response to geopolitical events, interest rate announcements, or market sentiment shifts.
“Because it trades 24/7, if people are worried about how things are going to open on Monday, some pools of capital can sell their Bitcoin on a Sunday and prepare,” Alden said.
While this contributes to price swings, it also provides greater flexibility for global investors looking to hedge macro risk or reposition portfolios quickly.
The Fed Factor: Yield Curve Control & Bitcoin’s Big Boost
Another key scenario that could drive Bitcoin much higher is a Federal Reserve pivot toward monetary easing, especially if a crisis hits the U.S. bond market. Alden notes that a breakdown in the bond market could trigger the Fed to implement policies such as:
- Yield Curve Control (YCC)
- Quantitative Easing (QE)
- Emergency liquidity injections
These measures inject liquidity into the financial system—something Bitcoin tends to benefit from directly.
“A massive liquidity unlock could be the catalyst needed for Bitcoin to reach more optimistic targets,” Alden said.
Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100: A Potential Decoupling?
Alden also noted that Bitcoin doesn’t always move in lockstep with U.S. tech stocks (as represented by the Nasdaq 100), especially during times when tech companies face margin pressure due to tariffs, higher wages, or supply chain challenges.
She suggests that Bitcoin could decouple from tech stocks in the coming quarters, particularly if global liquidity remains robust while U.S. corporate profits come under pressure.
This gives Bitcoin a non-correlated edge in portfolios that are otherwise heavily exposed to traditional equities.
Macro Risks to Watch in 2025
While Alden remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term potential, she warns that volatility, regulatory developments, and geopolitical uncertainty will continue to impact short-term price action. Investors should stay alert to:
- U.S. interest rate policies and inflation trends
- Tariff and trade disruptions
- Liquidity moves by the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and People’s Bank of China
- Major global conflicts or sanctions regimes
Final Thoughts
Lyn Alden’s analysis reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is no longer just a retail speculative asset—it is now a macro asset that responds to shifts in global money supply, central bank policies, and investor liquidity preferences.
With potential echoes of the 2003–2007 period on the horizon, Bitcoin could be entering a phase where it not only survives volatility but benefits from macro dislocation and monetary easing.
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