Bitcoin Price Prediction: $200K by 2025, $500K by 2028 — Standard Chartered’s Bold Forecast
Bitcoin’s Strategic Outlook for 2025 and Beyond
Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of FX and Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, has once again made headlines with a highly optimistic forecast for Bitcoin (BTC). According to Kendrick, Bitcoin could soar to $200,000 by the end of 2025, and potentially reach an eye-watering $500,000 by 2028.
As of April 2025, Bitcoin hovers above $91,000, having already enjoyed substantial growth this year. But Kendrick believes this is just the beginning.
Why Standard Chartered Believes Bitcoin Could Hit $200K
Kendrick’s bullish outlook rests on multiple macroeconomic and political catalysts that align in Bitcoin’s favor:
1. Bitcoin as a Hedge Against Financial System Risks
Standard Chartered sees Bitcoin’s decentralized nature as a powerful hedge during periods of systemic instability — similar to gold. Its value tends to rise when confidence in traditional institutions (like central banks or government debt markets) falters.
“Bitcoin’s role as a financial system hedge is increasingly evident,” Kendrick told media outlets. “Events like the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in 2023 showed that BTC can act as a form of insurance.”
During such crises, Bitcoin’s independence from centralized institutions becomes an asset, attracting investors who seek to diversify away from fiat-based systems.
Key Drivers of the $200K Forecast
1. US Treasury Term Premium Correlation
Kendrick highlights a strong correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the US Treasury term premium, a measure that reflects the extra return investors demand for holding long-term government bonds. That premium hit a 12-year high in early 2024, signaling growing skepticism about U.S. fiscal policy and long-term inflation risks.
Historically, rising term premiums have aligned with bullish BTC movements. Although Bitcoin briefly lagged behind this indicator in early 2024 — partly due to tech stock jitters and tariff fears — Kendrick anticipates a realignment that will push prices much higher.
2. Political Factors: 2024 US Presidential Election
According to Kendrick, a Donald Trump victory in the 2024 U.S. election could significantly accelerate Bitcoin’s rise.
“If Trump wins, the path to $200K by the end of 2025 becomes even clearer,” Kendrick noted in Standard Chartered’s April report. The rationale? Trump is seen as more favorable toward crypto, and a potential second term could weaken institutional oversight, driving investors toward decentralized assets like BTC.
3. Concerns Over the Fed’s Independence
Kendrick also notes market concerns around the Federal Reserve’s independence, especially if leadership changes follow the 2024 election. With possible reshuffling or removal of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Bitcoin may benefit from growing uncertainty in U.S. monetary policy.
The Road to $500K by 2028
While the 2025 target of $200,000 is ambitious, Kendrick goes even further, projecting a $500,000 price point by 2028 — an over 450% increase from current levels.
This longer-term projection depends on broader institutional adoption, widespread use of BTC as a reserve asset, and continued regulatory clarity. If ETFs and sovereign-level purchases continue to grow, the $500K mark is no longer a fantasy.
Not Kendrick’s First Bold Crypto Call
Geoffrey Kendrick has developed a reputation for confident — and often accurate — crypto predictions. In addition to Bitcoin, he has recently forecast:
- XRP could hit $12.50 by 2028
- Avalanche (AVAX) might reach $250 by 2029
These forecasts align with Kendrick’s broader thesis: cryptocurrencies will increasingly integrate into traditional finance as digital transformation accelerates.
Market Sentiment: Are Investors Buying the Hype?
The crypto community remains cautiously optimistic. While Bitcoin’s fundamentals are strengthening — driven by the 2024 halving, ETF inflows, and institutional interest — skeptics warn that macro risks could derail bullish momentum.
Still, Kendrick’s credibility, combined with Standard Chartered’s institutional weight, lends serious weight to these projections.
Final Thoughts: Should You Bet on $200K BTC?
Kendrick’s call is more than just a number — it’s a reflection of evolving attitudes toward cryptocurrency’s role in global finance. If current trends continue — decentralized adoption, macro instability, political shakeups — Bitcoin may indeed be on a path toward $200K and beyond.
However, crypto remains volatile. Long-term investors should weigh the potential against the risks and monitor macro developments closely.
Key Takeaways
- Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin will hit $200K by 2025 and $500K by 2028.
- Key drivers: financial system risk, rising term premium, 2024 U.S. election, Fed uncertainty.
- Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a digital hedge similar to gold.
- Political outcomes could significantly impact BTC’s trajectory.
- Geoffrey Kendrick has a track record of bold but data-driven crypto predictions.
